X-mas Day Storm Analysis/GFS-WRONG, EURO-Right/1st Guess Map
http://aeroweather.org/2011/12/20/519/ Music fits perfectly for some, but this is still a storm to watch for the N&W areas! White X-mas looks possible. I-95 and East, do not read blog.
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snow wrote:That means the GFS is not as bad as some have betrayed it to be....For the record I'm a huge fan of the GFS and if the GFS shows a storm 5 days out get ready for it otherwise forget about...
View ArticleRe: X-mas Day Storm Analysis/GFS-WRONG, EURO-Right/1st Guess Map
The models are clueless at this point right now. Either way in this pattern set up it looks like either would be mainly rain event with inland areas may getting snow or mixed precip or it will be OTS...
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JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONU...-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif
View ArticleRe: X-mas Day Storm Analysis/GFS-WRONG, EURO-Right/1st Guess Map
at this point, would be GREAT if we could have models OTS like the JMA . With the SE ridge pumping, its almost inevitable that the models will trend stronger, warmer and more NW within 48-72 hours.....
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jsb27 wrote: at this point, would be GREAT if we could have models OTS like the JMA . With the SE ridge pumping, its almost inevitable that the models will trend stronger, warmer and more NW within...
View ArticleRe: X-mas Day Storm Analysis/GFS-WRONG, EURO-Right/1st Guess Map
Again taken from my FB page... Jim Rinaldi sees a lot of opinions, chatter and wannabes talking about a potential Christmas storm. The pattern is very unfavorable for snow in the I-95 corridor. If...
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Nice little discussion Jim, idk how anyone can honestly disagree. As for the system being a no go and all models showing it offshore, how many times have we seen this? Just for them to correct within...
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0z gfs changes in regards to a further nw solution in the making. I honestly do see this much further nw then what we see now.
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I agree about the models being too weak with southern branch, and too strong with the northern branch of late. As you see the 0z Euro bring the storm back along NC coast, before moving it out to sea....
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So So what do you experts think? THis one is tricky but it looks like someone might get snow out of this if the storm phases closed to coast as more energy seems to be going with the southern branch
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"if" the 12z GFS were to verify it shows tell tale signs of the Icelandia block / SE ridge breaking down 1st week of January with a more pronounced ridge out west allowing for troughs over...
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12z gfs ensemble members show the storm closer to the coast.
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The 12z GFS looks like it's shearing the southern stream too much with northern stream. The GGEM looks all northern stream. And I would think the low would be too far off the coast, for us, if that...
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Miguel, the Euro also does the same thing. It's all northern stream.
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weathergun wrote: The 12z GFS looks like it's shearing the southern stream too much with northern stream. The GGEM looks all northern stream. And I would think the low would be too far off the coast,...
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metfan4life wrote:Miguel, the Euro also does the same thing. It's all northern stream.Yeah, if that case, than I think the trough swings through quickly and the low develops too far offshore. We want...
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0z NAM slowed the storm down too much. I think it held back energy and maybe tried to get a mid-week storm going if it were extrapolated. GFS should make more sense tonight
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I think we can pretty much stick a fork with the Christmas storm. The models are stronger with southern stream system. As we suspected, it would be. But they cut it off, too far SW, for the northern...
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Yeah Christmas storm put in the coffin it seems. As for next week's potential, looks to warm in our area for snow unfortuntly.
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